No growth contraction despite demonetization

Following demonetization drive initiated by the government in November last year, analysts from all quarters have been expressing the apprehension of GDP growth number falling drastically in the near run (especially in Q3 of the current fiscal) due to consumption slump. But the latest estimates released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) underline a different story altogether.

steelThe Central Statistics Office (CSO) has retained the growth projection for the current fiscal at 7.1 per cent, as projected in the first advance estimate in January. Meanwhile, the CSO has also marginally revised upwards the GDP estimates for the first and the second quarters to 7.2 per cent and 7.4 per cent.

It was feared that demonetisation effected in the middle of the third quarter (November 9, 2016) would have adverse bearing on various segments of the economy. The Reserve Bank of India and other agencies like IMF and OECD had lowered GDP projections arguing that the note ban would have short-term impact on the Indian economy.

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