DHL Global Trade Barometer indicates contraction in the near run

The latest edition of DHL Global Trade Barometer (launched in January 2018) has indicated a slight contraction of worldwide trade for the next three months. The index value has dropped to 48 – air trade declined by -6 to 49 points, and containerized ocean trade by -8 points to 48 index points.

Commenting on the latest forecast, Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, said: “Amidst rising US-Chinese tensions, the slightly negative outlook for global trade for the third quarter of 2019 does not come as a complete surprise. The latest GTB clearly illustrates why trade disputes create no winners. Nevertheless, some major economies such as Germany continue to record positive trade growth. And from a year-to-date perspective, world trade growth has still been positive. Hence, we remain confident in our initial prognosis that 2019 will be a year with overall positive, but slower trade growth.”

The barometer also includes projections for India which is likely to be marginally impacted due to global trade contraction. “ Three GTB constituent countries record slower trade growth forecasts while managing to stay above the level of stagnation: Germany has registered a mere -1 point decline compared to the previous quarter and now scores 52, whilst India loses -6 points, resulting in an outlook of 53 points. The UK actually gains +2 points, scoring an index value of 52,” the report says.

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