The DHL Global Trade Barometer (GTB) indicates a further contraction in world trade for the next three months. The overall trade outlook is reduced by -2 points, to a new index value of 45. That means that global trade continues to lose momentum, albeit mildly. Against the previous updates, the downward tendency is largely moderate and steady, neither indicating an acceleration of the decline nor a bottoming out. Except India, all surveyed countries are affected by the deceleration and record indexes below the 50-points-threshold of no growth. The overall decline was driven by minor decreases in both, air and containerized ocean trade. Air trade declined by -3 to 42 points, and containerized ocean trade by -2 to 46 index points.
“According to the DHL Global Trade Barometer the year will probably end with moderate world trade. However, we’ve to bear in mind where we come from: The rapid growth world trade has undergone in recent years was like climbing the Mount Everest. Now, we are on the descent, but we are still breathing altitude air”, Tim Scharwath, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding, Freight, says.
Out of seven surveyed countries, six record mildly negative trade outlooks: Germany and China both fall by -3 points to an index of 45 and 42, respectively. For Germany, this development is mainly triggered by a weakening air trade outlook, which significantly drops by -7 points to 45. The slowdown in Chinese trade is caused by both, sluggish air and ocean trade, leaving China with the weakest growth outlook of all surveyed countries. US trade is also expected to contract further, albeit an almost unchanged overall trade outlook of 44 index points (-1 points compared to the previous update). The overall outlook for South Korea decreases by -2 points to a new index value of 43.